Monday, April 21, 2008

Summer Movie 2008 Box Office Predix

In Entertainment Weekly's "summer movie preview" issue are their predictions for the top ten grossing films of the summer. Although last year they skipped it for some reason, they're back at it again and I'm ready to take on the predix challenge!

EW says: (1.) Indiana Jones $355.9 million (2.) Prince Caspian $310.8 million (3.) Hancock $280.4 million (4.) Wall-E $280.3 million (5.) Iron Man $262.7 million (6.) Dark Knight $255.0 million (7.) Kung Fu Panda $224.6 million (8.) The Mummy: Dragon Emperor $176.5 million (9.) Incredible Hulk $147.2 million (10.) Tropic Thunder $142.6

My thoughts: First off, my thinking is NEVER underestimate Star Wars fans. It's tough to know exactly where it'll place but I think Clone Wars will do very well. Indiana Jones, I agree with EW, will do unbelievable business— I think it'll do a slightly bigger number than even EW predicts. There has been some rumbling that Iron Man will not be that huge a hit, so I think the gross might miss the $200 mark. Speed Racer is killing me: EW nor anyone else thinks it'll do well— even breaking $100 million seems a reach to most— but I'm gonna give it the benefit of the doubt. Harry Potter 2 did not best Harry Potter 1 so why does EW think that Narnia 2 will best Narnia 1?— I don't, particularly since it's not based on a current bestseller. However, I think it'll be close to Narnia 1's $291.7 million. This might just be my personal preference but I don't think anyone cares about Hulk at this point. Now EW's $147.2 prediction isn't a very big number these days, but I swear I wouldn't be shocked if it totally tanked and didn't even reach $100 million. Get Smart, also not on EW's list, is another possible wild-card. Kung Fu Panda— tough call: I'd normally lean toward EW's prediction that it'd be big. But— the big BUT— is that Panda is sandwiched in between Indiana Jones and Wall-E and it could get lost in the shuffle. Panda has had a ton of publicity, however. I think Wall-E is money in the bank: I really see this movie as a $300+. I just can't make up my mind on Hancock. I always underestimate Will Smith. The Will Smith flop must be coming. And you know the damn thing is called Hancock! Then again EW is right about the tried and true formula: Will Smith + July 4th weekend= hit. The real question is how Dark Knight will fare. There's a definite possibility of been there, done that. Many posters on the internet are predicting it will be the summer's #1 movie. And everyone wants to see Heath Ledger as Joker. A lot of buzz. Somehow though, I like EW's more conservative number: I'd go even a little less. This might be my big screw-up though. Tropic Thunder I just can't see being on the top ten, especially since it's so late in the season and they'll be a TON of choices for moviegoers by that time. The Mummy: Dragon Emperor— another tough call. I want to see it. But is there enough interest, particularly in that long shadow of Indy?

My predictions for Domestic Box Office Gross Summer 2008:

(1.) Indiana Jones: $365 million
(2.) Wall-E: $315 million
(3.) Prince Caspian: $275 million
(4.) Dark Knight: $245 million
(5.) Hancock: $215 million
(6.) Iron Man: $190 million
(7.) Star Wars: Clone Wars: $175 million
(8.) Get Smart: $155 million
(9.) Speed Racer: $140 million
(10.) Kung Fu Panda: $130 million

The big questions:

1. Will Indiana Jones be the #1 movie of the summer?
2. Will The Dark Knight give Indy a run for the money?
3. Will Iron Man crack $200 million?
4. Will Speed Racer tank?
5. Will any summer movie earn as much as last year's biggest: Spider-Man 3 ($336.5)?


Joe said...

I'm uncertain about Star Wars doing so well - I think it'll be a hit, but I'm not sure it'll be a 100 mill + hit.

Definitely agree about Hancock, though. It doesn't have a good hook and it just feels "meh."

Animation is super hard to predict, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wall-E and Panda explode this summer, especially after the lacklustre spring.

It definitely doesn't look like R rated films are going to be huge, though. That's kinda disappointing.

And I hope Speed Racer does better than people are thinking. If it can grab kids, it'll be a hit...As long as no one has epilepsy!

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