Summer Box Office 2010 Top Ten Champs

Now that the dust has settled and the fall is upon us, and with the release of summer blockbusters Iron Man 2 and The Karate Kid on DVD (Toy Story 3 gets released on November 2), it's time to take a look at how things wrapped up.








Here are the Top Ten Moneymakers of Summer 2010:

1. Toy Story 3- 412.0 million (to date) (#9 domestic of all-time [unadjusted for inflation])
2. Iron Man 2— $312.1 million
3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse— $300.5 million
4. Inception— $289.3 million (to-date)
5. Despicable Me— $246.6 million (to-date)
6. Shrek Forever After— $238.4 million
7. The Karate Kid— $176.6 million
8. Grown Ups— $161.8 million
9. The Last Airbender— $131.6 million
10. The Other Guys— $118.0 million/ Salt- 117.9 million (both to-date)

The summer sleeper award goes to The Karate Kid (honorable mention to The Expendables, with a $102.8 haul to-date). On the list of box office fizzles: Robin Hood ($105.3 million), Sex and the City 2 ($95.3 million), Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time (a very low [especially these days] $90.8 million), The A-Team ($77.2 million).... and the big dud: Knight & Day (just $76.4 million).

Summer Movie Box Office 2009-- The Mid Point

The hits, the misses of summer movies 2009, so far... Easily on the misses side would be Terminator Salvation (a paltry $122.3 million-to-date, domestic), Angels & Demons (a so-so $130.7 million to-date domestic), and Land of the Lost ($47.3 million) [to put these numbers in perspective, Paul Blart: Mall Cop grossed $146.3 million domestic). The hits: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Up, Star Trek, The Hangover (wow-- my predix came true), and X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Doing well, but certainly less-than-expected is Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian. Overachievers certainly include The Proposal.

Here are the top ten summer movies so far (domestic grosses to-date):

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($239.4 million)
2. Up ($256.5)
3. Star Trek ($247.6)
4. The Hangover ($190.8)
5. X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($178.0)
6. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian ($165.2)
7. Angles & Demons ($130.7)
8. Terminator Salvation ($122.3)
9. The Proposal ($78.0)
10. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 ($55.0)

Now onto July 4th Weekend and Public Enemies or more likely (if the early numbers are any indication) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (with Harry Potter looming large, July 15).

What Will Be Summer '09's Surprise Hit (U.S. Domestic)?

I always get annoyed when I see in print: such and such a film is destined to be this year's sleeper hit. Because, by definition, a "sleeper" is a hit that's a surprise! If you see it coming, it's not a surprise. But just like predicting box office grosses, "guessing" what will be a sleeper is different if everyone expects a movie will do little business, but you just have a gut feeling it might be a hit. So, if we call a movie that makes $150 million+ a hit, then, will any of the "untouted" movies make this number?

Last year's sleeper was Sex and the City, which grossed $152.6 million domestically; following right behind on the summer movie sleeper-meter was Mamma Mia!, which grossed $144.1 million. Neither was an outright blockbuster (i.e. $200 million+, but both were certainly unexpected hits).

My guess last year was hopelessly off the mark (Star Wars: Clone Wars which grossed $35.1 million). Rather than offering another poor prediction, I'll just list the ones to follow, below (if forced I might go with The Hangover as my prediction for this year's summer sleeper-- did I just doom it!?).

Surprise hit "contenders" include:

• Drag Me to Hell: Sam Raimi is back in the horror genre after his Spider-Man tenure.

• Management: Anything with Jennifer Aniston these days seems to have hit potential.

• My Sister's Keeper: Now this would be a surprise, but semtimental somethimes hits big.

• The Proposal: The Sandra Bullock/Ryan Reynolds (/Betty White!) flick has gotten alot of exposure trailer-wise.

• The Hangover: Old School's Todd Phillips might have the comedy touch in a season light on straight comedies.

• (500) Days of Summer: Wouldn't exactly be a "surprise" hit as it's already getting buzz.

• G-Force: Ever since the Chipmunks, anything goes with cute rodents.

• I Love You, Beth Cooper: Looks appealing.

• They Came From Upstairs: I dunno, it's been a long time since we've had a E.T./Gremlins experience-- could this be it?

• Julie & Julia: The mighty Meryl is back after her one-two summer movie punch of last year.

• The Time Traveller's Wife: Against it, it comes out in mid-August; for it-- the kids are back in school two weeks later.

• District 9: Alien invasion and summer movies go hand-in-hand.

Summer Movie 2009 Box Office Predictions' "Big Questions"

Usually Entertainment Weekly's "summer movie preview" issue has their predictions for the top ten grossing films of the summer; this year they skipped it. My predictions last year were WAYYYY off (my only solid prediction was that Prince Caspian would not be a huge hit); as much as I like to follow the box office, maybe predictions are not my bag. Instead, I'll continue my "big questions": the "what will happen" of summer box office 2009, as follows:

The big questions, summer movies 2009:

1. Will Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen or Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince be the #1 movie of the summer?
2. Will Star Trek give them a run for the money?
3. Will the "leaked" X-Men: Origins: Wolverine spoil it's box office revenues or fuel a major blockbuster?
4. Will Up tarnish or maintain the Pixar "hit"-list? aka Will Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs best Up?
5. Will G. I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra tank?
6. Will Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian be a modest hit or a humongous one?
7. Will Public Enemies translate to a summer blockbuster?
8. Will Bruno place among the biggest rated R opening weekends?
9. Will Angels and Demons beat the domestic gross of The Da Vinci Code ($217.5)?
10. It's pretty certain that nothing will make as much as last summer's The Dark Knight, but will any summer movie make it to $400 million domestic?

Summer Box Office 2008 Top Ten Champs

Now that the dust has settled and the fall is upon us, and with the release of summer blockbusters Iron Man and Indiana Jones on DVD (The Dark Knight gets released on December 9), it's time to take a look at how things wrapped up.

Here are the Top Ten Moneymakers of Summer 2008:

1. The Dark Knight— $527.5 million (to date)
2. Iron Man— $318.3 million
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull— $317.0 million (to date)
4. Hancock— $228.0 million
5. WALL•E— $222.2 million (to date)
6. Kung Fu Panda— $215.4 million (to date)
7. Sex and the City— $152.6 million
8. Mamma Mia!— $143.5 million (to date)
9. Prince Caspian— $141.6 million
10. The Incredible Hulk— $134.5 million

Wanted (at $134.3 million [close but no cigar for top ten]) and Get Smart (at $130.3 [to date]) did very well for themselves with #11 and #12 place finishes.

The summer sleeper award goes to Sex and the City (with honorable mention to Mamma Mia!). My summer sleeper prediction: Star Wars: Clone Wars... zoinks!... a paltry $35 million haul.

And now the answers to my pre-summer burning questions:

1. Will Indiana Jones be the #1 movie of the summer? No!

2. Will The Dark Knight give Indy a run for the money? And how!

3. Will Iron Man crack $200 million? And beyond!

4. Will Speed Racer tank? Yes! (final gross: $43.9 million)

5. Will any summer movie earn as much as last year's biggest: Spider-Man 3 ($336.5)? Hugely, plus, Iron Man and Indy got pretty close as well.

"Dark Knight" Breaks Opening Weekend Record

By the time EW's Summer Movie Issue got its first few wrinkles on your coffee table, with a few soda can circles on its Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull cover, it was widely predicted that The Dark Knight, and not Indy would be the #1 summer movie. The opening numbers confirm The Dark Knight's dominance, with little else left in the summer to stand in its way. Now the question is, will it gross $400 million domestic and enter the very elite group of films that have managed this feat (numbering just 7 to-date). The film's only stumbling blocks are its length (2.5 hours) and the fact that it's not young child-friendly (as, generally speaking, the 7 other $400-millioners were). The tried-and-true bellwether will be the Monday drop-off percentage: will it be significantly more or less than 50%? I'm voting that The Dark Knight, length and all, will be an unstoppable "must-see" and will easily land in the top ten domestic of all-time. What might give the film that extra boost is an end-of-the-year Oscar consideration re-rerelease: something few summer movie blockbusters get. It will be fun watching The Dark Knight ride up the box office ranks—particularly with an opening weekend debut at #149.

Summer Movie Box Office 2008-- The Mid Point

The hits, the misses of summer movies 2008, so far... Easily on the misses side would be Speed Racer (an abysmal $42.9 million-to-date, domestic), The Love Guru ($26.1 million to-date domestic), and Narnia: Prince Caspian (a not-even Horton Hears A Who! total to-date of $137.8 million domestic). Thankfully, Prince Caspian's international numbers ($275.6 million to-date) assure the continuation of the series. The hits: Iron Man, Indy, Sex and the City, and relatively: The Incredible Hulk and Zohan. Overachievers also certainly include What Happens in Vegas.

Here are the top ten summer movies so far (domestic grosses to-date):

1. Iron Man ($309.5)
2. Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($300.8)
3. Kung Fu Panda ($181.1)
4. Sex and the City ($140.8)
5. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian ($137.8)
6. The Incredible Hulk ($117.2)
7. You Don't Mess With the Zohan ($91.7)
8. Get Smart ($80.4)
9. What Happens in Vegas ($78.4)
10. WALL-E ($72.0)

Now onto July 4th Weekend and Hancock (with The Dark Knight looming large, July 18).

Indy and Iron Man: Photo finish?

The general consensus these days is that The Dark Knight will be the biggest summer movie (domestic). But what of second place? Everyone I know is convinced that Indiana Jones has been beaten by Iron Man. But the fact of the matter is, Indy is pulling in twice as much as Iron Man and is on twice as many screens... and it's not that far behind.

Despite my lackluster summer box office predix, I offer another— that Indiana Jones will end up beating Iron Man if just by a few hundred thousand dollars, domestically. We won't know for sure until some time in August. I'll be keeping a close watch.

"Speed Racer": How Will It Do?

This weekend will answer one of the biggest questions of the summer movie season: How will Speed Racer perform? The outlook is not-so-hot, but there are a certain fringe who think it'll do well. I put it at #9 on my summer box office predictions (predicting a $140 million domestic gross) so I guess I'm part of that fringe!

EW has $24 million weekend prediction

Boxofficemojo box office derby has an average $39.2 million weekend prediction

Speed Racer opens in 3,606 theaters this weekend.

Robert Downey Jr. and Box Office

Someone was telling me that Iron Man's weekend gross was bigger than all of Robert Downey Jr.'s previous movies' grosses combined. Well, that's not quite true. But when you look at Downey's last decade, you do see how significant Iron Man is to introducing Downey to a mass audience.






Robert Downey Jr.'s films grosses 1998-2008 (per boxofficemojo.com):
Charlie Bartlett $3,950, 984
Lucky You $5,758,950
Zodiac $33,080,084
A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints ?
Fur $223,202
A Scanner Darkly $5,501,616
The Shaggy Dog $61,123,569
Good Night and Good Luck $31,558,003
Kiss Kiss Bang Bang $4,243,756
Game 6 $129,664
Eros $188,392
Gothika $59,694,580
The Singing Detective $337,174
Whatever We Do ?
Lethargy ?
Auto Motives ?
Wonder Boys $19,393,557
Black and White $5,277,299
Bowfinger $66,384,775
Friends and Lovers $33,543
In Dreams $12,017,369
U.S. Marshals $57,167,405
The Gingerbread Man $1,677,131

What Will Be Summer '08's Surprise Hit?

I always get annoyed when I see in print: such and such a film is destined to be this year's sleeper hit. Because, by definition, a "sleeper" is hit that's a surprise! If you see it coming, it's not a surprise. But just like predicting box office grosses, "guessing" what will be a sleeper is different if everyone expects a movie will do little business, but you just have a gut feeling it might be a hit. So, if we call $200 million a hit, then, will any of the "untouted" movies make this number?

For me, and I know no one is behind me on this, I think the surprise hit will be Star Wars: Clone Wars. And although I put $175 million on my summer movie predix I'll stick with this movie for my $200 million surprise hit pick— no guts, no glory.

Other surprise hit "contenders" include:

• Sex and the City: After all, Baby Mama has done very well. And although I don't know a single dude who will see this movie, everyone knows it's coming out, so exposure level is at complete saturation.

• Speed Racer: It's hard to call a movie that's got this much publicity behind it a possible "surprise" hit, except there is universal consensus that it will (a) suck (b) tank.

• The Foot Fist Way: Has that indie buzz.

• Wanted: In it's favor is its advance publicity, although haven't seen much lately-- they need to ramp it back up.

• The Happening: If it's good it still won't do the huge numbers of Shyamalan's past films, but what if it's great?

• Get Smart: Seems to have wide appeal.

• The Love Guru: I agree, no way, but it's possible.

• You Don't Mess With the Zohan: Good trailer.

• The X-Files: In its favor: everyone's heard of it.

• Kit Kittredge: An American Girl: (Little) girl power.

• Step Brothers: Ferrell and Reilly combo always has potential.

• Mamma Mia!: I can't imagine it: it just looks miserably bad, but again, everyone knows it in a sense.

• Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D: Could look really cool.

• Meet Dave: Eddie Murphy is not out of the game yet.

• Hellboy II: The Golden Army: The first film was a minor surprise hit.

• American Teen: Some buzz on this film.

• Space Chimps: I really doubt it, but could be just entertaining enough to be a "popcorn" guilty pleasure.

• Pineapple Express: Definite possibilities: borderline to call the success of this movie a "surprise"-- but not many are predicting $200 million, so I guess it counts.

• Tropic Thunder: On Entertainment Weekly's top ten, but with a $142.6 million prediction, so as with Pineapple, still counts as a "surprise" if it goes over $200 million.

• Vicky Cristina Barcelona: I put this down as a joke: but can you imagine if a Woody Allen film made $200 million???!!!

• Star Wars: Clone Wars: Again, my theory: the live action films aren't just hits-- they're among the biggest money-makers of all time.

• Choke: Could be really good and gain an audience.

Summer Movie 2008 Box Office Predix

In Entertainment Weekly's "summer movie preview" issue are their predictions for the top ten grossing films of the summer. Although last year they skipped it for some reason, they're back at it again and I'm ready to take on the predix challenge!

EW says: (1.) Indiana Jones $355.9 million (2.) Prince Caspian $310.8 million (3.) Hancock $280.4 million (4.) Wall-E $280.3 million (5.) Iron Man $262.7 million (6.) Dark Knight $255.0 million (7.) Kung Fu Panda $224.6 million (8.) The Mummy: Dragon Emperor $176.5 million (9.) Incredible Hulk $147.2 million (10.) Tropic Thunder $142.6

My thoughts: First off, my thinking is NEVER underestimate Star Wars fans. It's tough to know exactly where it'll place but I think Clone Wars will do very well. Indiana Jones, I agree with EW, will do unbelievable business— I think it'll do a slightly bigger number than even EW predicts. There has been some rumbling that Iron Man will not be that huge a hit, so I think the gross might miss the $200 mark. Speed Racer is killing me: EW nor anyone else thinks it'll do well— even breaking $100 million seems a reach to most— but I'm gonna give it the benefit of the doubt. Harry Potter 2 did not best Harry Potter 1 so why does EW think that Narnia 2 will best Narnia 1?— I don't, particularly since it's not based on a current bestseller. However, I think it'll be close to Narnia 1's $291.7 million. This might just be my personal preference but I don't think anyone cares about Hulk at this point. Now EW's $147.2 prediction isn't a very big number these days, but I swear I wouldn't be shocked if it totally tanked and didn't even reach $100 million. Get Smart, also not on EW's list, is another possible wild-card. Kung Fu Panda— tough call: I'd normally lean toward EW's prediction that it'd be big. But— the big BUT— is that Panda is sandwiched in between Indiana Jones and Wall-E and it could get lost in the shuffle. Panda has had a ton of publicity, however. I think Wall-E is money in the bank: I really see this movie as a $300+. I just can't make up my mind on Hancock. I always underestimate Will Smith. The Will Smith flop must be coming. And you know the damn thing is called Hancock! Then again EW is right about the tried and true formula: Will Smith + July 4th weekend= hit. The real question is how Dark Knight will fare. There's a definite possibility of been there, done that. Many posters on the internet are predicting it will be the summer's #1 movie. And everyone wants to see Heath Ledger as Joker. A lot of buzz. Somehow though, I like EW's more conservative number: I'd go even a little less. This might be my big screw-up though. Tropic Thunder I just can't see being on the top ten, especially since it's so late in the season and they'll be a TON of choices for moviegoers by that time. The Mummy: Dragon Emperor— another tough call. I want to see it. But is there enough interest, particularly in that long shadow of Indy?

My predictions for Domestic Box Office Gross Summer 2008:

(1.) Indiana Jones: $365 million
(2.) Wall-E: $315 million
(3.) Prince Caspian: $275 million
(4.) Dark Knight: $245 million
(5.) Hancock: $215 million
(6.) Iron Man: $190 million
(7.) Star Wars: Clone Wars: $175 million
(8.) Get Smart: $155 million
(9.) Speed Racer: $140 million
(10.) Kung Fu Panda: $130 million

The big questions:

1. Will Indiana Jones be the #1 movie of the summer?
2. Will The Dark Knight give Indy a run for the money?
3. Will Iron Man crack $200 million?
4. Will Speed Racer tank?
5. Will any summer movie earn as much as last year's biggest: Spider-Man 3 ($336.5)?